How can increased temperatures from climate change impact milk production on small farms? This is what a recent study published in Food Policy hopes to address as a team of researchers from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (U of I) investigated dairy farms are susceptible to harm from increasing temperatures. This study has the potential to help researchers, climate scientists, farmers, and the public better understand the impacts of climate change on farming and the steps that can be taken to mitigate them.
For the study, the researchers combined milk production data with weather data to ascertain a link between heat stress and milk production. The milk production data was from 2012 to 2016 and comprised of more than 56 million dairy cow production records obtained from more than 18,000 dairy farms across nine U.S. Midwest states. The weather data was comprised of temperature and humidity changes during that same period.
The researchers concluded that heat stress leads to an approximate 1% reduction in annual milk yield, equating to a loss of 1.4 billion pounds of milk or approximately $245 million in revenue based on average milk prices. Furthermore, they determined that smaller farms, specifically those with fewer than 100 cows, accounted for approximately 27% of the total milk yield loss. Through a series of climate models, the researchers projected that milk yield losses could reach 30% annually by 2050. To mitigate these losses, they recommended investments in enhanced ventilation and sprinkler systems; however, they acknowledged that smaller farms may face financial constraints in implementing these measures.
“There are a number of different adaptive methods, but there is no silver bullet,” said Dr. Marin Skidmore, who is an assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at U of I and a co-author on the study. “You can install more sprinklers and sophisticated ventilation systems. You could change the timing of calving to avoid these warmer periods, but that incurs other risks, and it is a complex issue.”
What new connections between heat stress and milk production will researchers make in the coming years and decades? Only time will tell, and this is why we science!
As always, keep doing science & keep looking up!
Sources: Food Policy, EurekAlert!, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Featured Image Credit: College of ACES
