How could climate change worsen over the next 1,000 years and what steps can be taken to mitigate its impact? This is what a recent study published in Environmental Research Letters hopes to address as a team of researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany investigated the connection between climate change and carbon cycle feedback and what this could mean for the future of climate change for the rest of the century.
For the study, the researchers used a series of computer models to simulate the impacts of climate change if average global temperatures, which the researchers call the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), increased between 2 °C to 5 °C, as defined by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, between now and the next 1,000 years. The goal of the study was to ascertain if the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping average global temperatures below 2 °C before the end of the century was possible.
Along with this being the first study to predict that far ahead in the future—most studies stop at the year 2100 or 2300—the researchers incorporated carbon and methane cycle feedbacks to better understand the impacts of future climate change. In the end, the researchers found that the Paris Agreement goal can be reached if emissions continue to be reduced and the ECS limit is 3 °C.
“Our research makes it unmistakably clear: today’s actions will determine the future of life on this planet for centuries to come,” said Dr. Johan Rockström, who is the PIK director and a co-author on the study. “We are already seeing signs that the Earth system is losing resilience, which may trigger feedbacks that increase climate sensitivity, accelerate warming and increase deviations from predicted trends. To secure a liveable future, we must urgently step up our efforts to reduce emissions.”
How will climate change continue to worsen in the coming years and decades? Only time will tell, and this is why we science!
As always, keep doing science & keep looking up!
Sources: Environmental Research Letters, EurekAlert!
